{ "metadata": { "compiled": "2026-06-19", "source_search": "alternative / non-obvious sources for Nigeria grid electricity generation mix and hydro data", "note": "Values are extracted from the downloaded alternative sources and web-search highlights; they should be cross-checked against primary NERC/NBS releases before use in final emission factors." }, "generation_mix_annual_estimates": [ { "year": 2020, "source": "UNDP Nigeria Energy Finance Assessment (2020)", "gas_percent": 80, "hydro_percent": 20, "installed_capacity_mw": 12522, "peak_generation_mw_range": "3000-3800", "comment": "Pre-reform context; hydro described as cornerstone of generation mix" }, { "year": 2022, "source": "IEA Country Profile Nigeria", "total_generation_gwh": 37916, "gas_percent": 74.5, "hydro_percent": 24.3, "bioenergy_percent": 1.1, "comment": "IEA World Energy Balances; hydro includes pumped storage" }, { "year": 2023, "source": "EIA Nigeria Country Analysis Brief 2025", "total_generation_twh": 42.5, "gas_percent": 77, "hydro_percent": 23, "total_capacity_gw": 14.1, "comment": "Zungeru 700 MW commissioned June 2023; Kainji 760 MW under rehab" }, { "year": 2024, "source": "Guardian Nigeria summary of NERC 2024 annual data", "total_generation_gwh": 37093.70, "hydro_gwh": 11469.85, "hydro_percent": 30.92, "avg_hourly_generation_mwh": 4222.87, "comment": "Hydropower provided critical load stability during gas shortfalls" } ], "quarterly_hydro_share": [ {"period": "2023/Q2", "hydro_gwh": 1798.82, "hydro_percent": 20.29, "source": "NERC via Nairametrics"}, {"period": "2023/Q3", "hydro_gwh": 2208.47, "hydro_percent": 25.49, "source": "NERC via Nairametrics"}, {"period": "2024/Q2", "hydro_gwh": 2367.68, "hydro_percent": 26.98, "source": "NERC 2024 Q3 report"}, {"period": "2024/Q3", "hydro_gwh": 3080.94, "hydro_percent": 32.60, "source": "NERC 2024 Q3 report"}, {"period": "2025/Q1", "hydro_gwh": 3081.88, "hydro_percent": 29.91, "source": "NERC 2025 Q1 report"}, {"period": "2025/Q2", "hydro_gwh": 2967.28, "hydro_percent": 30.19, "source": "NERC 2025 Q2 report"} ], "hydro_plants": [ { "name": "Kainji", "state": "Niger", "installed_mw": 760, "notes": "Largest hydro plant; rehab/expansion to 980 MW scheduled to complete by 2027", "sources": ["EIA 2025", "World Bank ESMP", "IHA/AfDB AHMP"] }, { "name": "Jebba", "state": "Niger", "installed_mw": 578.4, "notes": "Third operational hydro plant; six 96.4 MW turbines; output varies with inflow", "sources": ["EIA 2025", "World Bank ESMP", "IHA/AfDB AHMP"] }, { "name": "Shiroro", "state": "Niger", "operator": "North South Power", "installed_mw": 600, "record_generation_gwh": 2688, "record_year": 2016, "average_annual_gwh_since_1990": 2230, "notes": "Provides ~8% of Nigeria grid power on average; black-start capability for Abuja", "sources": ["North South Power website", "InfraCredit"] }, { "name": "Zungeru", "state": "Niger", "installed_mw": 700, "commissioning": "June 2023", "notes": "Second-largest plant; added in 2023/2024", "sources": ["EIA 2025", "BusinessDay / Minister Adelabu"] }, { "name": "Gurara", "state": "Kaduna", "operator": "North South Power", "installed_mw": 30, "typical_generation_gwh": 115, "capacity_factor_percent": 44, "notes": "25-year concession; 110 km 132 kV line to TCN Kudenda substation planned", "sources": ["North South Power website", "InfraCredit"] } ], "gas_to_power_supply": [ { "period": "Jan 2017 – Jan 2018", "domestic_gas_supply_mmscfd": 1077.93, "gas_to_power_mmscfd": 672.92, "gas_to_power_percent_of_domestic": 62.43, "implied_power_mw": 2812, "source": "NNPC monthly report (ThisDay 2018)" }, { "year": 2023, "total_gas_produced_tcf": 2.503, "utilised_tcf": 2.316, "utilisation_percent": 92.54, "daily_production_bcf": 6.857, "source": "NUPRC 2023 Annual Report (search highlights)" }, { "year": 2024, "total_gas_produced_tcf": 2.511, "utilised_tcf": 2.317, "utilisation_percent": 92.26, "daily_production_bcf": 6.86, "domestic_sales_percent_of_produced": 28.7, "export_sales_percent_of_produced": 39.5, "source": "NUPRC 2024 Annual Report (search highlights)" } ], "thermal_gencos_observed": [ { "company": "Transcorp Power", "plants": ["Ughelli"], "installed_mw": 972, "available_mw_end_2024": 625, "revenue_2024_ngn_bn": 305.9, "source": "Transcorp Power AFS 2024" }, { "company": "Shell SPDC JV", "plants": ["Afam VI"], "technology": "CCGT", "installed_mw": 650, "generation_2008_2015_mwh": ">20,000,000", "cdm_project": "UNFCCC CDM project 5645", "source": "Shell Nigeria / CDM PDD" } ], "regional_master_plan_priority_projects_nigeria": [ {"project": "Zungeru Hydropower Plant", "mw": 700, "source": "WAPP ECOWAS Master Plan 2019-2033"}, {"project": "Mambilla Hydropower Plant", "mw": 3050, "source": "WAPP ECOWAS Master Plan 2019-2033"}, {"project": "Kaduna Thermal Power Plant", "source": "WAPP ECOWAS Master Plan 2019-2033"}, {"project": "Alaoji II Thermal Power Plant", "source": "WAPP ECOWAS Master Plan 2019-2033"}, {"project": "Nigeria Solar Farm PV", "mw": 1000, "period": "2025-2029", "source": "WAPP ECOWAS Master Plan 2019-2033"}, {"project": "Nigeria Wind Farm", "mw": 300, "source": "WAPP ECOWAS Master Plan 2019-2033"} ], "hydro_resource_potential": { "large_hydro_potential_mw": 11250, "large_hydro_untapped_percent": 83, "small_hydro_potential_mw": 3500, "small_hydro_exploited_mw": 64.2, "micro_dams": 70, "mini_dams": 126, "small_sites": 86, "source": "UNDP Nigeria Energy Finance Assessment (2020)" }, "data_gaps_remaining": [ "Annual plant-level generation (GWh) for all grid-connected plants 2020-2025", "Updated WAPP ASB0034 standardized baseline beyond 2019 data", "Direct downloadable NUPRC annual reports 2023/2024 (404 in this pass)", "Public CDP/GRI responses from Nigerian gencos", "Historical NERC/TCN generation data tables from Wayback Machine", "Parliamentary/FOI generation output records" ] }