""" Build reconciled Nigeria grid-electricity datasets for NEFDB. Inputs ------ - International databases (Ember, OWID, IRENA, World Bank) - Nigerian Energy Data Bank hydro plant records - Academic plant-level records - Alternative-source generation-mix estimates Outputs ------- - nigeria_generation_mix_reconciled.csv - hydro_plants_annual_gwh.csv - consolidation_decision.md (decision log) """ from pathlib import Path import csv import json ROOT = Path("C:/Users/HP/palmgrove/NEFDB") OUT_DIR = ROOT / "datasets" / "grid_electricity" / "derived" OUT_DIR.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) def read_csv(path): with open(path, newline="", encoding="utf-8") as f: return list(csv.DictReader(f)) def write_csv(path, rows, fieldnames): with open(path, "w", newline="", encoding="utf-8") as f: writer = csv.DictWriter(f, fieldnames=fieldnames) writer.writeheader() writer.writerows(rows) # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Load source data # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- ember = read_csv(ROOT / "datasets" / "grid_electricity" / "international" / "ember_nigeria.csv") owid = read_csv(ROOT / "datasets" / "grid_electricity" / "international" / "owid_energy_nigeria.csv") irena = read_csv(ROOT / "datasets" / "grid_electricity" / "international" / "irena_nigeria_generation_by_technology.csv") nedb = read_csv(ROOT / "datasets" / "grid_electricity" / "hyperbrowser" / "nedb_hydro_generation.csv") alt = json.load(open(ROOT / "datasets" / "grid_electricity" / "alternative" / "nigeria_generation_mix_alternative_extracts.json")) def ember_year(year): y = str(year) def get(var): for r in ember: if r["Year"] == y and r["Category"] == "Electricity generation" and r["Subcategory"] == "Fuel" and r["Variable"] == var and r["Unit"] == "TWh": return float(r["Value"]) * 1000 return None total = next(float(r["Value"]) * 1000 for r in ember if r["Year"] == y and r["Category"] == "Electricity generation" and r["Subcategory"] == "Total" and r["Variable"] == "Total Generation") return { "year": year, "source": "Ember/OWID", "total_gwh": total, "gas_gwh": get("Gas") or 0, "hydro_gwh": get("Hydro") or 0, "oil_gwh": get("Other Fossil") or 0, "solar_gwh": get("Solar") or 0, "wind_gwh": get("Wind") or 0, "coal_gwh": get("Coal") or 0, "biomass_gwh": get("Bioenergy") or 0, "other_gwh": 0, "confidence": "medium", "notes": f"Ember Yearly Electricity Data and OWID energy dataset (identical values for Nigeria {year}).", } def irena_year(year): y = str(year) rows = [r for r in irena if r["Year"] == y] def get(tech): for r in rows: if r["Technology"] == tech: v = r["Electricity generation statistics"].strip() return float(v) if v and v != "-" else 0 return 0 hydro = get("Renewable hydropower") solar = get("Solar photovoltaic") wind = get("Onshore wind energy") + get("Offshore wind energy") biomass = get("Solid biofuels") + get("Biogas") oil = get("Oil") gas = get("Natural gas") non_renew = get("Total non-renewable") total_renew = get("Total renewable") total = non_renew + total_renew return { "year": year, "source": "IRENA (IRENASTAT)", "total_gwh": total, "gas_gwh": gas, "hydro_gwh": hydro, "oil_gwh": oil, "solar_gwh": solar, "wind_gwh": wind, "coal_gwh": get("Coal and peat"), "biomass_gwh": biomass, "other_gwh": 0, "confidence": "medium", "notes": f"IRENA gross electricity generation by technology, {year} edition; total = renewable + non-renewable.", } # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Candidate rows for national mix # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- candidates = [] for year in range(2020, 2025): candidates.append(ember_year(year)) for year in range(2020, 2024): candidates.append(irena_year(year)) # IEA 2022 (from alternative extracts) for est in alt["generation_mix_annual_estimates"]: if est["year"] == 2022: total = float(est["total_generation_gwh"]) gas = total * float(est["gas_percent"]) / 100 hydro = total * float(est["hydro_percent"]) / 100 bio = total * float(est.get("bioenergy_percent", 0)) / 100 candidates.append({ "year": 2022, "source": "IEA Country Profile Nigeria", "total_gwh": total, "gas_gwh": round(gas, 2), "hydro_gwh": round(hydro, 2), "oil_gwh": 0, "solar_gwh": 0, "wind_gwh": 0, "coal_gwh": 0, "biomass_gwh": round(bio, 2), "other_gwh": 0, "confidence": "medium", "notes": "IEA World Energy Balances figure reported in IEA Nigeria country profile.", }) if est["year"] == 2023: total = float(est["total_generation_twh"]) * 1000 gas = total * float(est["gas_percent"]) / 100 hydro = total * float(est["hydro_percent"]) / 100 candidates.append({ "year": 2023, "source": "EIA Country Analysis Brief 2025", "total_gwh": round(total, 2), "gas_gwh": round(gas, 2), "hydro_gwh": round(hydro, 2), "oil_gwh": 0, "solar_gwh": 0, "wind_gwh": 0, "coal_gwh": 0, "biomass_gwh": 0, "other_gwh": 0, "confidence": "medium", "notes": "EIA Nigeria Country Analysis Brief 2025; only gas/hydro split provided.", }) if est["year"] == 2024: total = float(est["total_generation_gwh"]) hydro = float(est["hydro_gwh"]) candidates.append({ "year": 2024, "source": "Guardian Nigeria (NERC 2024 data)", "total_gwh": round(total, 2), "gas_gwh": round(total - hydro, 2), "hydro_gwh": round(hydro, 2), "oil_gwh": 0, "solar_gwh": 0, "wind_gwh": 0, "coal_gwh": 0, "biomass_gwh": 0, "other_gwh": 0, "confidence": "high", "notes": "Nigeria official figure from Guardian Nigeria summary of NERC 2024 annual statistics.", }) # UNDP 2020 estimate (shares only) – kept as note rather than a candidate row because no absolute total. # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # NEDB hydro plant totals # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- nedb_hydro = {} for r in nedb: code = r["code"] year = int(r["year"]) val = float(r["value"]) unit = r["unit"].strip() # Map ELPD codes to plant names plant_map = { "ELPD_KAINJI_GEN": "Kainji", "ELPD_JEBBA_GEN": "Jebba", "ELPD_SHIRORO_GEN": "Shiroro", "ELPD_NESCO_GEN": "NESCO", } plant = plant_map.get(code, code) # NESCO values are labelled MWh but are actually kWh (known unit-scale error in the portal). # Kainji/Jebba labels say MW but numeric magnitudes are annual MWh. # Shiroro label says Bill.Cubic Meter but numeric magnitudes match MWh. if code == "ELPD_NESCO_GEN": gwh = val / 1_000_000 # kWh -> GWh else: gwh = val / 1_000 # MWh -> GWh nedb_hydro.setdefault(plant, {})[year] = round(gwh, 3) # Quick QA: 2020 plant sum print("NEDB hydro plant totals (GWh) sample 2020:") for plant in ["Kainji", "Jebba", "Shiroro", "NESCO"]: print(f" {plant}: {nedb_hydro.get(plant, {}).get(2020)}") # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Build chosen (reconciled) national mix rows # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- chosen = [] # 2020: Ember/OWID total + NEDB hydro + IRENA solar/biomass/oil total_2020 = 38000.0 hydro_2020 = sum(nedb_hydro[p][2020] for p in ["Kainji", "Jebba", "Shiroro", "NESCO"] if 2020 in nedb_hydro.get(p, {})) irena_2020 = irena_year(2020) solar_2020 = irena_2020["solar_gwh"] biomass_2020 = irena_2020["biomass_gwh"] oil_2020 = irena_2020["oil_gwh"] gas_2020 = total_2020 - hydro_2020 - solar_2020 - biomass_2020 - oil_2020 chosen.append({ "year": 2020, "source": "NEFDB reconciled", "total_gwh": round(total_2020, 2), "gas_gwh": round(gas_2020, 2), "hydro_gwh": round(hydro_2020, 2), "oil_gwh": round(oil_2020, 2), "solar_gwh": round(solar_2020, 2), "wind_gwh": 0, "coal_gwh": 0, "biomass_gwh": round(biomass_2020, 2), "other_gwh": 0, "confidence": "high", "notes": ( "Chosen for 2020: total generation from Ember/OWID; hydro from Nigerian Energy Data Bank " "plant records (Kainji+Jebba+Shiroro+NESCO). Solar/biomass/oil from IRENA. Gas is the residual. " "NEDB hydro (8,341.99 GWh) is ~8.5% higher than Ember hydro (7,690 GWh); plant-level official data preferred." ), }) # 2021: Ember/OWID total + IRENA hydro + IRENA solar/biomass/oil total_2021 = 39200.0 irena_2021 = irena_year(2021) hydro_2021 = irena_2021["hydro_gwh"] solar_2021 = irena_2021["solar_gwh"] biomass_2021 = irena_2021["biomass_gwh"] oil_2021 = irena_2021["oil_gwh"] gas_2021 = total_2021 - hydro_2021 - solar_2021 - biomass_2021 - oil_2021 chosen.append({ "year": 2021, "source": "NEFDB reconciled", "total_gwh": round(total_2021, 2), "gas_gwh": round(gas_2021, 2), "hydro_gwh": round(hydro_2021, 2), "oil_gwh": round(oil_2021, 2), "solar_gwh": round(solar_2021, 2), "wind_gwh": 0, "coal_gwh": 0, "biomass_gwh": round(biomass_2021, 2), "other_gwh": 0, "confidence": "medium", "notes": ( "Chosen for 2021: total from Ember/OWID; hydro/solar/biomass/oil from IRENA because " "NEDB hydro plant records are incomplete for Kainji and Jebba after 2020. Gas is the residual." ), }) # 2022: Ember/OWID total + IRENA hydro + IRENA solar/biomass/oil total_2022 = 38000.0 irena_2022 = irena_year(2022) hydro_2022 = irena_2022["hydro_gwh"] solar_2022 = irena_2022["solar_gwh"] biomass_2022 = irena_2022["biomass_gwh"] oil_2022 = irena_2022["oil_gwh"] gas_2022 = total_2022 - hydro_2022 - solar_2022 - biomass_2022 - oil_2022 chosen.append({ "year": 2022, "source": "NEFDB reconciled", "total_gwh": round(total_2022, 2), "gas_gwh": round(gas_2022, 2), "hydro_gwh": round(hydro_2022, 2), "oil_gwh": round(oil_2022, 2), "solar_gwh": round(solar_2022, 2), "wind_gwh": 0, "coal_gwh": 0, "biomass_gwh": round(biomass_2022, 2), "other_gwh": 0, "confidence": "medium", "notes": ( "Chosen for 2022: total from Ember/OWID (closely matched by IEA 37,916 GWh); hydro/solar/biomass/oil from IRENA. " "Gas is the residual." ), }) # 2023: Ember/OWID total + IRENA hydro + IRENA solar/biomass/oil total_2023 = 40920.0 irena_2023 = irena_year(2023) hydro_2023 = irena_2023["hydro_gwh"] solar_2023 = irena_2023["solar_gwh"] biomass_2023 = irena_2023["biomass_gwh"] oil_2023 = irena_2023["oil_gwh"] gas_2023 = total_2023 - hydro_2023 - solar_2023 - biomass_2023 - oil_2023 chosen.append({ "year": 2023, "source": "NEFDB reconciled", "total_gwh": round(total_2023, 2), "gas_gwh": round(gas_2023, 2), "hydro_gwh": round(hydro_2023, 2), "oil_gwh": round(oil_2023, 2), "solar_gwh": round(solar_2023, 2), "wind_gwh": 0, "coal_gwh": 0, "biomass_gwh": round(biomass_2023, 2), "other_gwh": 0, "confidence": "medium", "notes": ( "Chosen for 2023: total from Ember/OWID; hydro/solar/biomass/oil from IRENA. " "EIA Country Analysis Brief gives a higher total (42,500 GWh) and is included as a candidate row. " "Gas is the residual." ), }) # 2024: Guardian Nigeria / NERC official total and hydro; Ember/OWID for solar/biomass total_2024 = 37093.70 hydro_2024 = 11469.85 emb_2024 = ember_year(2024) solar_2024 = emb_2024["solar_gwh"] biomass_2024 = emb_2024["biomass_gwh"] gas_2024 = total_2024 - hydro_2024 - solar_2024 - biomass_2024 chosen.append({ "year": 2024, "source": "NEFDB reconciled", "total_gwh": round(total_2024, 2), "gas_gwh": round(gas_2024, 2), "hydro_gwh": round(hydro_2024, 2), "oil_gwh": 0, "solar_gwh": round(solar_2024, 2), "wind_gwh": 0, "coal_gwh": 0, "biomass_gwh": round(biomass_2024, 2), "other_gwh": 0, "confidence": "high", "notes": ( "Chosen for 2024: total and hydro from Guardian Nigeria summary of NERC 2024 official data. " "Solar/biomass from Ember/OWID. Gas is the residual. Hydro share of 30.92% is materially higher " "than Ember/OWID hydro share (~24.5%)." ), }) # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Combine and write national mix CSV # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- fieldnames = [ "year", "source", "total_gwh", "gas_gwh", "hydro_gwh", "oil_gwh", "solar_gwh", "wind_gwh", "coal_gwh", "biomass_gwh", "other_gwh", "confidence", "notes", ] # Round all numeric fields all_rows = [] for row in candidates + chosen: out = {"year": row["year"], "source": row["source"], "confidence": row["confidence"], "notes": row["notes"]} for k in ["total_gwh", "gas_gwh", "hydro_gwh", "oil_gwh", "solar_gwh", "wind_gwh", "coal_gwh", "biomass_gwh", "other_gwh"]: v = row.get(k) out[k] = round(v, 2) if isinstance(v, (int, float)) else v all_rows.append(out) # Sort: year ascending, reconciled last within each year all_rows.sort(key=lambda r: (r["year"], 0 if r["source"] == "NEFDB reconciled" else 1)) mix_path = OUT_DIR / "nigeria_generation_mix_reconciled.csv" write_csv(mix_path, all_rows, fieldnames) print(f"Wrote {mix_path} with {len(all_rows)} rows ({len(chosen)} reconciled + {len(candidates)} candidates).") # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Hydro plant annual GWh CSV # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- plant_rows = [] plants = ["Kainji", "Jebba", "Shiroro", "NESCO"] # NEDB primary rows (best available direct plant records) for plant in plants: for year, gwh in sorted(nedb_hydro.get(plant, {}).items()): if 2020 <= year <= 2024: notes = "NEDB value: unit label corrected to annual energy (kWh for NESCO, MWh for Kainji/Jebba/Shiroro)." if plant in ("Kainji", "Jebba") and year > 2020: continue # not available if plant == "Shiroro" and year > 2021: continue plant_rows.append({ "year": year, "plant": plant, "gwh": gwh, "source": "Nigerian Energy Data Bank", "confidence": "high", "notes": notes, }) # Academic candidate rows: Adoghe et al. 2023 for 2020 (noted as inconsistent) adoghe_2020 = { "Kainji": 362.55, "Jebba": 356.66, "Shiroro": 331.11, } for plant, gwh in adoghe_2020.items(): plant_rows.append({ "year": 2020, "plant": plant, "gwh": gwh, "source": "Adoghe et al. 2023 Heliyon (PMC10010986)", "confidence": "low", "notes": ( "Academic plant-level figure for 2020. Values are an order of magnitude lower than NEDB/Okakwu " "for the same plants and are not used for the reconciled total." ), }) # Placeholder rows for missing years/plants (null gwh) missing_note = "No direct annual GWh record found in reviewed sources;" for plant in plants: available = set(nedb_hydro.get(plant, {}).keys()) for year in range(2020, 2025): if year not in available: plant_rows.append({ "year": year, "plant": plant, "gwh": "null", "source": "not found", "confidence": "low", "notes": f"{missing_note} estimate would require NERC quarterly dispatch data or Elec-T scraping.", }) # Add Zungeru and Gurara as known plants with no annual GWh data for plant in ("Zungeru", "Gurara"): for year in range(2020, 2025): plant_rows.append({ "year": year, "plant": plant, "gwh": "null", "source": "not found", "confidence": "low", "notes": "Identified hydro asset; no annual generation GWh record located in this research pass.", }) plant_fieldnames = ["year", "plant", "gwh", "source", "confidence", "notes"] plant_rows.sort(key=lambda r: (r["year"], r["plant"], r["source"] == "")) plant_path = OUT_DIR / "hydro_plants_annual_gwh.csv" write_csv(plant_path, plant_rows, plant_fieldnames) print(f"Wrote {plant_path} with {len(plant_rows)} rows.") # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Consolidation decision markdown # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- md = """# Grid-electricity consolidation decision log Generated: 2026-06-19 Scope: Reconcile all recent research into authoritative Nigeria grid generation datasets (2020–2024) for NEFDB. ## 1. Summary of sources reviewed | Source | Type | Years available | What it provides | |---|---|---|---| | Nigerian Energy Data Bank (NEDB) | Nigeria official plant records | 1962–2022 (partial) | Annual hydro generation by plant (Kainji, Jebba, Shiroro, NESCO). Unit labels required correction. | | Ember – Yearly Electricity Data | International database | 2000–2024 | Country-level generation by fuel (TWh). | | Our World in Data (OWID) energy data | International database | 1900–2024 | Same underlying data as Ember for Nigeria. | | IRENA IRENASTAT | International database | 2020–2023 | Generation by technology (GWh), including renewables, hydro, solar, biomass, oil, gas. | | World Bank WDI API | International database | 2015–2023 | Share-of-output indicators only (gas, hydro, renewables, oil, coal). | | IEA Country Profile Nigeria | International / government | 2022 | Total generation and gas/hydro/bioenergy shares. | | EIA Country Analysis Brief 2025 | International / government | 2023 | Total generation and gas/hydro shares. | | Guardian Nigeria summary of NERC 2024 data | Nigeria official (via press) | 2024 | Total generation and hydro output for 2024. | | UNDP Nigeria Energy Finance Assessment (2020) | Alt / development report | 2020 | Gas/hydro shares only, no absolute total. | | Adoghe et al. (2023) Heliyon | Academic | 2017–2020 | Plant-level hydro GWh; 2020 figures conflict with official records. | | Okakwu et al. (2019) AZOJETE | Academic | 2008–2017 | Kainji total energy MWh; 2016/2017 values match NEDB. | | Salisu et al. (2025) IJISETR | Academic | 2012–2022 | Kainji monthly mean values; unit ambiguous and not used. | ## 2. Reconciliation rules used 1. **Use Nigeria official / plant-root data when directly available.** NEDB hydro plant records are preferred for 2020. Guardian Nigeria/NERC figures are preferred for 2024 total and hydro. 2. **Use a consistent international time series for national totals when Nigeria official totals are not available.** Ember/OWID provide an identical, continuous 2020–2024 series and are used as the national total anchor for 2020–2023. 3. **Fill fuel details from the most granular available source.** Solar, biomass and oil are taken from IRENA (2020–2023) and Ember/OWID (2024) because they provide explicit values. 4. **Gas is the residual** after subtracting hydro, solar, wind, biomass, oil and coal from total generation. 5. **Do not invent plant-level data.** Missing years/plants are written as empty cells in the hydro plant file. 6. **When sources conflict, include all candidate rows in the national mix file** and mark the reconciled value with source = `NEFDB reconciled`. ## 3. Year-by-year decisions ### 2020 - **Total:** Ember/OWID 38,000 GWh. - **Hydro:** NEDB plant sum = 8,341.99 GWh (Kainji 2,953.28 + Jebba 2,678.91 + Shiroro 2,634.21 + NESCO 75.59). - **Solar/biomass/oil:** IRENA (115.62 / 40.78 / 17.45 GWh). - **Gas residual:** 29,484.16 GWh. - **Rationale:** This is the only year with complete official plant-level hydro records. NEDB hydro is ~8.5% higher than Ember hydro (7,690 GWh); the plant-level official sum is preferred. ### 2021 - **Total:** Ember/OWID 39,200 GWh. - **Hydro, solar, biomass, oil:** IRENA (9,153.81 / 163.60 / 61.12 / 17.45 GWh). - **Gas residual:** 29,804.02 GWh. - **Rationale:** NEDB records for Kainji and Jebba stop at 2020, so IRENA hydro is used. NESCO 2021 = 45.66 GWh but is not a full hydro picture. ### 2022 - **Total:** Ember/OWID 38,000 GWh (IEA gives a closely aligned 37,916 GWh). - **Hydro, solar, biomass, oil:** IRENA (9,235.35 / 207.13 / 59.51 / 20.08 GWh). - **Gas residual:** 28,477.93 GWh. - **Rationale:** IEA and Ember/OWID totals are within 0.2%; IRENA provides the fuel breakdown. ### 2023 - **Total:** Ember/OWID 40,920 GWh. - **Hydro, solar, biomass, oil:** IRENA (9,426.41 / 267.96 / 62.06 / 46.36 GWh). - **Gas residual:** 31,117.21 GWh. - **Rationale:** EIA’s Nigeria Brief gives a notably higher total (42,500 GWh) and is included as a candidate. Ember/OWID are retained as the anchor for consistency with the rest of the time series. ### 2024 - **Total and hydro:** Guardian Nigeria / NERC (37,093.70 GWh total; hydro 11,469.85 GWh, 30.92%). - **Solar/biomass:** Ember/OWID (130 / 60 GWh). - **Gas residual:** 25,433.85 GWh. - **Rationale:** Nigeria official NERC-sourced total and hydro are preferred over international estimates. The hydro share is materially higher than Ember/OWID (~24.5%), reflecting the importance of hydropower during the 2024 gas shortfall. ## 4. Plant-level hydro decisions | Plant | Best source | Coverage | Notes | |---|---|---|---| | Kainji | NEDB | 2020 only (1969–2020) | Values treated as MWh. 2020 = 2,953.28 GWh. Adoghe et al. 2020 figure (362.55 GWh) rejected as inconsistent with NEDB/Okakwu. | | Jebba | NEDB | 2020 only (1986–2020) | Values treated as MWh. 2020 = 2,678.91 GWh. Adoghe et al. 2020 figure (356.66 GWh) rejected. | | Shiroro | NEDB | 2020–2021 (1990–2021) | Label says Bill.Cubic Meter but numeric magnitudes are MWh. 2020 = 2,634.21 GWh, 2021 = 2,401.20 GWh. Adoghe 2020 figure (331.11 GWh) rejected. | | NESCO | NEDB | 2020–2022 (1962–2022) | Unit label is MWh but values are actually kWh. 2020 = 75.59 GWh, 2021 = 45.66 GWh, 2022 = 12.71 GWh. | | Zungeru | — | None | 700 MW commissioned June 2023; no annual GWh record found. | | Gurara | — | None | 30 MW; typical ~115 GWh/year cited by NSP, but no verified annual series found. | ## 5. Known gaps and conflicts 1. **NEDB hydro records stop in 2020 for Kainji/Jebba, 2021 for Shiroro, 2022 for NESCO.** Filling 2021–2024 plant-level hydro requires NERC quarterly reports, TCN operational data or scraping the Elec-T dashboard. 2. **Gas totals disagree across sources.** EIA 2023 (42,500 GWh) is ~1,580 GWh above Ember/OWID; IRENA 2023 (37,402 GWh) is ~3,500 GWh below. The selected reconciled totals keep the Ember/OWID anchor. 3. **2024 hydro share conflict.** Guardian/NERC reports 30.92% hydro while Ember/OWID reports ~24.5%. The official figure is preferred but it creates a step-change in the series. 4. **Oil/coal/wind generation is negligible** in all sources. IRENA reports small oil-fired generation (17–46 GWh/year) while Ember/OWID report zero. 5. **Adoghe et al. (2023) plant-level hydro figures for 2020 are unusable** without clarification; they are anomalously low compared with NEDB and Okakwu et al. (2019). 6. **World Bank and UNDP provide shares only** and are used for cross-checking rather than as absolute primary sources. ## 6. Recommendation: can we compute a better national location-based EF? **Yes, for 2020 and 2024; partial for 2021–2023.** - **2020** now has a strong, plant-level hydro total (8,342 GWh) and a verifiable gas residual (29,484 GWh). The previous NEFDB location-based EF of 0.5717 kgCO₂e/kWh was based on only 75.6 GWh of hydro because Kainji/Jebba/Shiroro were excluded. Recomputing with the reconciled 2020 mix will lower the EF because hydro displaces gas. - **2024** has an official total and a large hydro share (30.92%). This supports a noticeably lower grid EF than the 2020 value. - **2021–2023** still rely on international database hydro estimates rather than plant-level Nigerian data. The EF for these years should be flagged as **medium confidence** until NERC/TCN plant dispatch records are obtained. **Next concrete steps:** 1. Extract 2021–2024 quarterly hydro dispatch from NERC annual/quarterly PDFs or from the Elec-T dashboard. 2. Recompute `location_based_ef.csv` and `grid_electricity.ts` using the reconciled generation mix and the same IPCC 2006 stationary-combustion factors. 3. Add uncertainty bands to the new EF values; keep the 2020 WAPP ASB operating/combined margins as a cross-check. """ md_path = ROOT / "docs" / "grid_electricity" / "consolidation_decision.md" md_path.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) with open(md_path, "w", encoding="utf-8") as f: f.write(md) print(f"Wrote {md_path}.") # Summary prints print(f"\nNational mix rows: {len(all_rows)}") print(f"Hydro plant rows: {len(plant_rows)}") print("Reconciled 2020 hydro:", round(hydro_2020, 2), "GWh") print("Reconciled 2024 hydro:", round(hydro_2024, 2), "GWh (", round(hydro_2024/total_2024*100, 1), "%)")