# NEFDB Deep Gap Search Log — Grid Electricity

> Search run: 2026-06-18/19
> Domain: grid electricity / national and DisCo-level emission factors
> Searcher: data-collection sub-agent for Palmgrove / Irenium Ltd

## Gaps targeted

1. **Primary Nigerian national grid emission factor** — most recent UNFCCC/WAPP standardized baseline for Nigeria.
2. **Plant-level generation mix** — fuel-by-fuel generation data to derive a current location-based national EF and DisCo EFs.
3. **DisCo billed energy** — energy supplied/sold per DisCo for denominator weighting.
4. **Hydro generation anomaly** — suspicious ELPD_NESCO_GEN value that dominated the derived hydro total.
5. **International corroboration** — IGES grid factor list, IPCC/DEFRA methodology, IRENA/EIA context.

## What was found

| Gap | Key URLs / source | Files saved | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| **National grid EF (WAPP ASB0034-2021)** | `https://cdm.unfccc.int/sunsetcms/storage/contents/stored-file-20210325112041972/ASB0034-2021.pdf` | `docs/grid_electricity/unfccc_asb0034_wapp_2021.pdf/.md`, `docs/grid_electricity/unfccc_asb0034_assessment_report.pdf/.md` | Found (OM 0.578, BM 0.556, CM 0.573 tCO₂/MWh) |
| **NERC grid data** | `https://nerc.gov.ng` annual + quarterly reports | `docs/grid_electricity/nerc_annual_report_202{2,3,4}.pdf/.md`, `nerc_quarterly_2024_q{1,3,4}.md`, etc. | Found |
| **NBS electricity data** | `https://nigerianstat.gov.ng` | `datasets/grid_electricity/nbs_electricity_q4_2023.pdf`, `datasets/grid_electricity/ELECTRICITY_DATA_2015-Q2_2024.xlsx` | Found |
| **Energy Databank generation by plant** | `https://databank.energy.gov.ng/elect_production_view` | `datasets/grid_electricity/energy_databank_generation_by_plant.csv/.json` | Found (30 series, 653 rows) |
| **IGES grid factor list (latest)** | `https://www.iges.or.jp/en/pub/list-grid-emission-factor/en` | `datasets/grid_electricity/iges_grid_emission_factors.xlsx`, `docs/grid_electricity/iges_grid_emission_factors.md` | Found via Firecrawl bypass (v11.7, March 2026) |
| **EIA Nigeria brief** | `https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/countries_long/Nigeria/Nigeria-2025.pdf` | `docs/grid_electricity/eia_nigeria_brief_2025.pdf/.md` | Found |
| **IRENA REMap Nigeria** | `https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2023/Jan/IRENA_REMap_Nigeria_2023.pdf` | `docs/grid_electricity/irena_remap_nigeria_2023.pdf/.md` | Found |

## What remains unresolved

- **No 2023–2024 recalculated WAPP factor exists.** The latest WAPP standardized baseline is 2021. A current location-based EF must be derived from NERC/NBS generation data.
- **Energy Databank only exposes annual plant-level records up to 2020** for most series. DisCo-level factors for 2023–2024 will require mapping DisCo service areas to these older plant-level mixes and updating with NERC totals.
- **Large hydro plants (Kainji, Jebba, Shiroro) lack usable generation records in the Energy Databank for 2020** — their records are in MW or reservoir-flow units, not MWh, so the derived hydro total excludes them.
- **IGES direct download is blocked by Cloudflare.** Working copy reconstructed from Firecrawl-parsed Markdown; the binary is not a direct download.

## Hydro anomaly resolution

- `ELPD_NESCO_GEN` raw value for 2020 (`75,593,010`) was judged a 1,000× unit-scale error (kWh labelled as MWh).
- Verdict and correction: `docs/grid_electricity/hydro_anomaly_verdict.md`
- Corrected output: `datasets/grid_electricity/derived/nigeria_generation_by_fuel_latest.csv` now lists hydro as **75.593 GWh** for 2020.

## Key derived outputs

| File | Rows | Note |
|---|---|---|
| `datasets/grid_electricity/derived/nigeria_generation_by_fuel_latest.csv` | 8 | 2020 generation by fuel; hydro corrected |
| `datasets/grid_electricity/derived/plant_fuel_mapping.csv` | 30 | Plant-to-fuel mapping from Energy Databank |
| `datasets/grid_electricity/derived/disco_billed_energy_latest.csv` | 11 | DisCo energy billed (GWh) from NBS Q2 2024 |

## Overall verdict

Grid electricity is the most mature dataset. National grid EFs are ready for Phase 0 bootstrap. DisCo-level EFs and current-year location-based EFs require derivation work, but the source data exists.