# Deep research academic log — Nigeria grid electricity generation data (2020–2024)

**Date:** 2026-06-19  
**Researcher:** OpenCode sub-agent for Palmgrove / Irenium Ltd  
**Objective:** Find published studies, theses, dissertations or journal articles containing annual generation by plant or fuel type for Nigeria, 2020–2024, with emphasis on Kainji, Jebba and Shiroro hydro plants.

## 1. Search strategy

Searched:

- Google Scholar, ResearchGate, Academia.edu, African Journals Online (AJOL), university repositories, international energy journals (Energy Policy, Energy Strategy Reviews, Energies, Heliyon, etc.), conference proceedings (E3S, IEEE, EGU), World Bank/AfDB sources.
- Queries used include: "Nigeria electricity generation Kainji Jebba Shiroro 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024", "Nigeria grid emission factor NERC generation", "Nigeria power sector generation mix", "Nigerian hydroelectric power generation GWh", "Nigeria electricity dispatch data".

## 2. Papers / sources located and processed

| Source | Type | PDF saved | Markdown saved | Key relevance |
|--------|------|-----------|----------------|---------------|
| Adoghe, Adeyemi-Kayode, Oguntosin & Amahia (2023) *Performance evaluation of the prospects and challenges of effective power generation and distribution in Nigeria*, Heliyon, PMC10010986 | Journal article | — | `pmc_performance_evaluation_nigeria_2023.md` | **Table 6**: plant-level energy generated/sent out 2017–2020 for Kainji, Jebba, Shiroro and other plants. Most useful academic 2020 plant-level data found. |
| Okakwu, Alayande & Olabode (2019) *Performance and economic analysis of Kainji hydropower plant*, AZOJETE | Journal article | `okakwu_2019_kainji_performance.pdf` | `okakwu_2019_kainji_performance.md` | **Table 1**: Kainji total energy generated 2008–2017 (MWh). |
| Salisu et al. (2025) *Evaluating changing hydrological patterns on... Kainji Hydropower Station*, IJISETR | Journal article | `salisu_2025_changing_hydrological_patterns_kainji.pdf` | `salisu_2025_changing_hydrological_patterns_kainji.md` | **Table 4**: Kainji monthly mean "power generated" 2012–2022; only academic source covering Kainji 2020–2022. Unit ambiguous (reported as MW but values exceed installed capacity). |
| Ibrahim (2023) *Optimum predictive modelling... Nigerian power system*, University of Pretoria PhD thesis | PhD thesis | `ibrahim_2023_nigerian_power_system_phd.pdf` | `ibrahim_2023_nigerian_power_system_phd.md` | **Table 2.1**: Nigeria 2020 generation-mix capacities (MW) by technology. |
| Odesola & Ale (2019) *Overview of energy generation at Jebba hydropower station* | Journal article | `odesola_2019_jebba_generation_overview.pdf` | `odesola_2019_jebba_generation_overview.md` | Hydrological/energy production figures 2009–2016; no tabulated annual totals extracted. |
| Liman et al. (2021) *Impact of climate variability on reservoir based hydro-power generation in Jebba Dam*, HSME | Journal article | `liman_2021_jebba_climate_variability.pdf` | `liman_2021_jebba_climate_variability.md` | Seasonal power-generation statistics 1988–2018; no annual GWh totals. |
| Liman et al. (2023) *Characterization of climatic parameters... on electricity generation in Jebba Dam*, BJMAS | Journal article | `liman_2023_jebba_climate_characterization.pdf` | `liman_2023_jebba_climate_characterization.md` | Monthly 2018 power-generation pattern; no annual GWh totals. |
| Aremu (2024) *Assessment of hydropower generation and green hydrogen production potential in Jebba Dam*, EGU | Conference presentation | `aremu_2024_jebba_hydro_green_hydrogen.pdf` | `aremu_2024_jebba_hydro_green_hydrogen.md` | Jebba hydroelectricity time series 2002–2022; only high/low years (2021 highest, 2002 lowest) and qualitative values from slides. |
| Adegbehin ABU dissertation *Effects of weather parameters... on hydroelectric power generation in Kainji Dam* | Dissertation | `abu_kainji_weather_parameters_dissertation.pdf` | `abu_kainji_weather_parameters_dissertation.md` | 1985–2014 Kainji seasonal generation; no annual GWh totals. |
| Kim et al. (2021) *Modeling long-term electricity generation planning...*, Energies | Journal article | `kim_2021_nigeria_long_term_generation_planning.pdf` | `kim_2021_nigeria_long_term_generation_planning.md` | MESSAGE model inputs/outputs; not plant-level and not 2020–2024 specific. |
| Eweka et al. (2022) *Energy landscape and renewable energy resources in Nigeria: A review*, Energies | Journal article | `eweka_2022_nigeria_energy_landscape_review.pdf` | `eweka_2022_nigeria_energy_landscape_review.md` | Review; 2020 capacity/mix context, no plant generation data. |
| STET (2024) *Renewable energy sources acceptability for decentralized energy system in Nigeria* | Journal article | — | Markdown extracted from web page metadata only | **Table 3**: installed capacities and availability factors for Kainji, Jebba, Shiroro. |
| Amogu (2022) *Reservoir operation simulation... Niger and Benue catchments*, E3S Web of Conferences | Conference paper | — (PDF blocked by 503) | — | Search snippet contains simulated/theoretical mean annual energies (Kainji 3 015 GWh/year; Jebba 2 802 GWh/year; observed 1975–2000 Kainji 1 906 GWh/year). Not 2020–2024. |
| Otobo (2023) *A critical examination of Nigeria's electricity generation and supply 2001–2020*, LSBU PhD thesis | PhD thesis | — (AWS WAF captcha blocked direct PDF) | — | Likely useful for 2001–2020; could not retrieve. |

Additional sources downloaded but yielding no generation/fuel-type data points:

- `acta_2023_sustainable_hydropower_nigeria.pdf` / `.md` — review of hydropower potential/capacity.
- `ajcr_2024_energy_crisis_2013_2023.pdf` / `.md` — capacity tables and narrative on privatisation; no plant GWh table.
- `fuoye_dynamical_control_kainji_jebba.pdf` / `.md` — cascade control model; no generation data.

## 3. Extraction output

CSV: `NEFDB/datasets/grid_electricity/academic/academic_generation_data.csv`  
Columns: `source`, `plant`, `year`, `value`, `unit`, `metric`, `notes`

**Data points extracted (27 rows):**

- **Adoghe et al. (2023) Heliyon Table 6**: 12 rows — Kainji, Jebba, Shiroro energy generated 2017–2020 (GWh). Only academic source giving 2020 plant-level GWh values for all three hydro plants.
- **Okakwu et al. (2019) AZOJETE**: 2 rows — Kainji total energy generated 2016–2017 (MWh), with direct station data.
- **Salisu et al. (2025) IJISETR**: 3 rows — Kainji annual mean "power generated" 2020–2022 (unit reported as MW; values are internally inconsistent with 760 MW installed capacity, so left as reported with a warning).
- **Ibrahim (2023) UP thesis**: 4 rows — Nigeria 2020 installed capacities by technology (hydro, thermal, solar, wind).
- **STET (2024)**: 3 rows — Kainji, Jebba, Shiroro installed capacities and availability factors.
- **Amogu (2022) E3S**: 3 rows — simulated/theoretical mean annual energies for Kainji/Jebba and historical observed Kainji average 1975–2000.

## 4. What remains missing

- **2021–2024 plant-level annual GWh generation for Jebba and Shiroro**: no academic paper, thesis or dissertation found with these exact annual totals.
- **2021–2024 plant-level annual GWh generation for Kainji**: only the ambiguous Salisu et al. (2025) mean monthly "power generated" table; no peer-reviewed annual GWh totals.
- **2023 and 2024 plant/fuel generation data**: no academic sources identified; the most recent official data come from NERC quarterly/annual reports and the NBS/Energy Databank portal (not academic).
- **Fuel-type or generation-mix annual data 2020–2024 by source**: academic sources provide only capacities or modelled scenarios, not observed generation by fuel/plant.

## 5. Cross-cutting observations

- The most reliable academic plant-level GWh series is the **PMC/Heliyon 2017–2020 table**. The Okakwu (2019) Kainji MWh series is an order of magnitude larger for the same plant, so it cannot be merged without source reconciliation/verification.
- Several academic sources on Nigerian hydro (Liman, Odesola, Adegbehin) contain graphs and descriptive statistics rather than annual generation totals.
- Official NERC quarterly reports (2020–2024) and the Nigeria Energy Databank contain the plant/fuel data needed to fill the gap, but they are regulatory/government sources rather than academic literature.
- PDFs from E3S and LSBU were blocked by bot protection/captcha and could not be retrieved or converted here.

## 6. Files created

```text
NEFDB/
├── datasets/grid_electricity/academic/
│   ├── academic_generation_data.csv
│   ├── abu_kainji_weather_parameters_dissertation.pdf
│   ├── acta_2023_sustainable_hydropower_nigeria.pdf
│   ├── ajcr_2024_energy_crisis_2013_2023.pdf
│   ├── aremu_2024_jebba_hydro_green_hydrogen.pdf
│   ├── eweka_2022_nigeria_energy_landscape_review.pdf
│   ├── fuoye_dynamical_control_kainji_jebba.pdf
│   ├── ibrahim_2023_nigerian_power_system_phd.pdf
│   ├── kim_2021_nigeria_long_term_generation_planning.pdf
│   ├── liman_2021_jebba_climate_variability.pdf
│   ├── liman_2023_jebba_climate_characterization.pdf
│   ├── odesola_2019_jebba_generation_overview.pdf
│   ├── okakwu_2019_kainji_performance.pdf
│   └── salisu_2025_changing_hydrological_patterns_kainji.pdf
└── docs/grid_electricity/academic/
    ├── abu_kainji_weather_parameters_dissertation.md
    ├── acta_2023_sustainable_hydropower_nigeria.md
    ├── ajcr_2024_energy_crisis_2013_2023.md
    ├── aremu_2024_jebba_hydro_green_hydrogen.md
    ├── eweka_2022_nigeria_energy_landscape_review.md
    ├── fuoye_dynamical_control_kainji_jebba.md
    ├── ibrahim_2023_nigerian_power_system_phd.md
    ├── kim_2021_nigeria_long_term_generation_planning.md
    ├── liman_2021_jebba_climate_variability.md
    ├── liman_2023_jebba_climate_characterization.md
    ├── odesola_2019_jebba_generation_overview.md
    ├── okakwu_2019_kainji_performance.md
    ├── pmc_performance_evaluation_nigeria_2023.md
    └── salisu_2025_changing_hydrological_patterns_kainji.md
```

PDF-to-Markdown conversion used **Firecrawl v2** via the `/v1/scrape` endpoint.