# Deep Research: Alternative Sources for Nigeria Generation Mix & Hydro Plant Data

**Date:** 2026-06-19  
**Scope:** Identify non-obvious / alternative sources that can fill gaps in Nigeria grid-electricity generation mix and hydro plant data for NEFDB.  
**Output folders:**
- Raw files: `NEFDB/datasets/grid_electricity/alternative/`
- Firecrawl v2 Markdown conversions: `NEFDB/docs/grid_electricity/alternative/`
- Conversion log: `NEFDB/docs/grid_electricity/alternative_conversion_log.md`

---

## 1. Executive Summary

| Priority sources found | Status | Key value |
|---|---|---|
| WAPP / ECOWAS Master Plan (update + 2019-2033) | Downloaded & converted | Regional/national generation mix, capacity, priority projects, Nigeria sub-set |
| WAPP 2020-2023 Business Plan | Downloaded & converted | Regional capacity build-out, interconnection, Nigeria role |
| World Bank Kainji & Jebba Hydro ESMP (2012 rev.) | Downloaded & converted | Existing Nigeria hydro capacity, operation, rehabilitation, output context |
| IHA / AfDB Africa Hydropower Modernisation Programme | Downloaded & converted | Condition of Kainji/Jebba, continent-wide rehab needs, Nigeria hydro assets |
| Tractebel hydropower site screening (Benue/Niger) | Downloaded & converted | 54 potential hydropower sites, 3 recommended short-term sites |
| UNDP Nigeria Energy Finance Assessment (2020) | Downloaded & converted | 80/20 gas-hydro mix estimate, projected generation, hydro pipeline |
| UNFCCC CDM – Afam VI CCGT project | PDD + monitoring + validation downloaded & converted | Grid-connected natural gas generation, baseline/monitoring methodology, emissions |
| NEITI Nigeria Oil & Gas Audit 2023 | Downloaded & converted | Company-level gas production, utilisation, flare, sales (gas-to-power input) |
| Transcorp Power AFS 2024 | Downloaded & converted | Largest private genco financials, generation capacity, gas-fired output proxy |
| NUPRC / NNPC gas-to-power data | Cited from search highlights only; direct PDFs repeatedly 404 | Annual gas production/utilisation split (power vs export) |
| North South Power / InfraCredit Shiroro-Gurara data | Captured from web pages | 600 MW Shiroro, 30 MW Gurara, ~8% of grid generation |
| Elec-T / WAEIS dashboards | Identified; not scraped programmatically | Interactive Nigeria genco capacity, generation, NBET invoicing |
| CDP / GRI corporate disclosures | No Nigeria genco specific public files found | Commercial disclosures behind paywalls or not published |
| Parliamentary / FOI records | Not found during this sweep | Could require direct FOI request to NERC/TCN |

**Bottom line:** The largest gap is recent, disaggregated *annual* generation by fuel/plant (MW and GWh) from a single authoritative source. NERC quarterly/annual reports already cover the grid, but hydro output is only aggregate. The alternative sources above provide cross-checks, historical context, asset-level capacity, and gas-supply proxies.

---

## 2. WAPP and ECOWAS regional sources

### 2.1 ECOWAS Revised Master Plan update (WAPP/Tractebel)
Files:
- `wapp_ecowas_masterplan_update_volume1_data.pdf` / `.md`
- `wapp_ecowas_masterplan_update_volume2_state_of_play.pdf` / `.md`

Key data extracted:
- Covers 14 WAPP member states including Nigeria; “Zone A” interconnection (Nigeria, Niger, Benin, Togo, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire).
- Volume 2 Section 2.2.4 contains generation data for each country.
- Volume 1 Section 4.1.13 is the Nigeria country sheet.
- Provides fuel cost, availability, load forecast, generation and transmission projects used in the PRELE optimisation model.

### 2.2 ECOWAS Master Plan for Regional Power Generation & Transmission Infrastructure 2019-2033
Files:
- `wapp_ecowas_masterplan_2019_2033_volume0_executive_summary.pdf` / `.md`
- `wapp_ecowas_masterplan_2019_2033_volume1_synthesis.pdf` / `.md`
- `wapp_ecowas_masterplan_2019_2033_volume4_generation_transmission.pdf` / `.md`
- `wapp_ecowas_masterplan_2019_2033_volume5_priority_program.pdf` / `.md`

Key data extracted:
- Total investment: USD 36.39 bn; 15.49 GW new generation; 22,932 km transmission.
- Priority generation mix: 31.1% thermal (mostly gas), 68.9% renewable (10.67 GW), of which 29.5% solar/wind.
- Nigeria priority projects listed: Zungeru HPP, Mambilla HPP, Kaduna thermal, Alaoji II thermal, 1 GW solar farm, 300 MW wind farm, Nigeria–Niger interconnection.
- Figure 4: “Energy Mix WAPP by technology at horizon 2022 (MW)”. Useful for cross-checking Nigeria’s share.

### 2.3 WAPP Business Plan 2020-2023
File: `wapp_2020-2023_business_plan_0.pdf` / `.md`

Key data extracted:
- References update of the ECOWAS Revised Master Plan launched 2018, funded by EU 11th EDF.
- Lists 75 regional priority projects and Nigeria’s role in regional power trade.

### 2.4 ECOWAS Energy Information System (WAEIS)
URL: https://www.eis.ecowas.int/  
Status: Interactive dashboards only; no bulk download captured in this pass.

Key data observed:
- `bilan_infrastructure` table shows Nigeria installed capacities by technology (e.g., hydro 4,115 MWe, conventional thermal 9,769 MWe, solar 67 MWe for a recent year).
- Useful for cross-checking aggregate technology shares.

---

## 3. Hydro plant-specific sources

### 3.1 World Bank – Kainji & Jebba Hydroelectric Power Plants ESMP update (Feb 2012)
File: `world_bank_kainji_jebba_hydro_rehab_esmp.pdf` / `.md`

Key data extracted:
- Rehabilitation of Kainji HPP (USD 115.9 m) and Jebba HPP (USD 11.7 m).
- “Between them these two facilities provide most of Nigeria’s hydropower production.”
- Discusses rule curves, power output, reservoir operation, and environmental management.
- Gives context for historical hydro output variability and constraints.

### 3.2 IHA / AfDB – Africa Hydropower Modernisation Programme (June 2023)
File: `hydropower_modernisation_report.pdf` / `.md`

Key data extracted:
- Kainji & Jebba HPPs flagged as key to power trading in Nigeria.
- Modernisation of Kainji-Jebba complex ongoing; recovery/rehabilitation considered.
- Identifies 21 plants (4.6 GW) as high-need and 36 plants (10.1 GW) as medium-need across Africa.
- Nigeria country profile included.

### 3.3 Tractebel / TCN-PMU – Hydropower site screening in Nigeria (2016)
File: `tractebel_nigeria_hydropower_site_screening.pdf` / `.md`

Key data extracted:
- Study area: Benue River basin + Niger River main stem (Jebba–Onitsha).
- Assessed 54 potential hydropower sites (small 5–20 MW, medium 20–100 MW, large >100 MW).
- Final three recommended short-term sites: DON09 (Manya), KAT02 (Bawarku), TAR12 (Garin Dalli).
- Provides Nigeria hydro resource potential beyond the three existing large plants.

### 3.4 North South Power / InfraCredit – Shiroro & Gurara
Sources captured from web pages (not downloaded as PDF):
- Shiroro: 600 MW, commissioned 1990, 4 × 150 MW units; record 2,688 GWh in 2016; average ~2,230 GWh since 1990.
- Gurara: 30 MW, 3 × 12.5 MVA turbines, ~115 GWh/year typical, capacity factor 44%.
- NSP claims to generate on average ~8% of Nigeria’s grid power.

---

## 4. Generation-mix / gas-to-power sources

### 4.1 UNDP – Assessment of Investment & Financial Flows: Nigeria Power Sector (June 2020)
File: `undp_nigeria_energy_finance_assessment_2020.pdf` / `.md`

Key data extracted:
- Grid generation mix estimated at ~80% thermal (gas) and ~20% hydro.
- Total installed capacity ~12,522 MW; peak generation hovering 3,000–3,800 MW at time of report.
- Hydro potential: large hydro 11,250 MW (83% untapped); small/mini/micro sites 3,500 MW.
- Lists hydro plants yet to be connected to the grid.

### 4.2 NEITI – Nigeria Oil & Gas Audit Report 2023 (Sept 2024)
File: `neiti_nigeria_oil_gas_audit_2023.pdf` / `.md`

Key data extracted:
- Company-level gas production, utilisation, flaring and sales for 2023.
- Schedules of GHG emissions and gas sales quantity/value.
- Provides numerator data for gas-to-power supply chain (which companies sell how much gas domestically).

### 4.3 UNFCCC CDM – Afam VI Combined Cycle Gas Turbine Project
Files:
- `cdm_afam_pdd.pdf` / `.md`
- `cdm_afam_monitoring_report_2012_2013.pdf` / `.md`
- `cdm_afam_monitoring_report_2013_2015.pdf` / `.md`
- `cdm_afam_validation_report.pdf` / `.md`

Key data extracted:
- Host party: Nigeria; authorised participant: Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria Ltd.
- Installed capacity context: 650 MW CCGT; AM0029 methodology for gas-fired grid-connected generation.
- Baseline grid emission factor used; annual reductions ~550 kt CO2e.
- Monitoring reports contain actual generation and fuel use for the crediting period.

### 4.4 Transcorp Power Plc – Audited Financial Statements 2024
File: `transcorp_power_afs_2024.pdf` / `.md`

Key data extracted:
- Revenue N305.9 bn (2024) vs N142.1 bn (2023).
- Principal activity: generation and sale of electric power.
- Ughelli plant ~972 MW installed; available capacity rose to ~625 MW in 2024.
- Useful proxy for large thermal genco output and market share.

### 4.5 NNPC / NUPRC / Industry press gas supply highlights
Status: Cited from search snippets; direct PDF downloads repeatedly returned 404 (NUPRC annual reports). NEITI audit above partially fills this gap.

Key data observed:
- NNPC monthly data (2017–2018): average 672.92 mmscfd to power plants (62.4% of domestic gas), equating to ~2,812 MW average daily (~76% of available electricity).
- NUPRC 2023/2024: total gas production ~2.5 Tcf, ~92.5% utilised; domestic sales ~28.7% of utilisation, export ~39.5%.
- TotalEnergies Ubeta gas project: up to 300 mmscfd; gas-to-power deals (e.g., Alaoji NIPP, Olorunsogo).
- Shell/NNPC/TEPNG/NAOC JVs supply feed gas to NLNG; domestic gas market remains constrained.

---

## 5. Dashboards, international databases and news archives

### 5.1 Elec-T – Nigerian Genco Capacity, Energy Output & NBET Invoicing
URL: https://elec-t.energymrc.ng/dashboard/On-Grid/GenerationData  
Status: Identified; interactive charts; not scraped in this pass.
Value: Disaggregated genco capacity, energy generated, invoices and remittances.

### 5.2 EIA Nigeria Country Analysis Brief 2025
Existing NEFDB file: `docs/grid_electricity/eia_nigeria_brief_2025.md`

Key cross-check:
- 2023: 42.5 TWh total generation; 77% natural gas, 23% hydro.
- Total capacity 14.1 GW in 2023; Zungeru 700 MW commissioned June 2023; Kainji 760 MW undergoing rehab to 980 MW.

### 5.3 IEA / World Bank / Statista
Cross-checks available:
- IEA: 2022 Nigeria electricity generation 37,916 GWh; hydro 24.3%, natural gas ~74%.
- World Bank hydro share indicator.
- Statista: capacity and generation time series.

### 5.4 News archives
Articles reviewed (key figures captured):
- Guardian Nigeria (2025-07-30): 2024 total generation 37,093.70 GWh; hydro 11,469.85 GWh (30.92%).
- BusinessDay (2025-01-13): Minister Adelabu – generation up 30% in 2024; peak 5,528 MW; Zungeru 700 MW added.
- Nairametrics (2023-12-18): Q3 2023 hydro share 25.49% (2,208.47 GWh) vs Q2 20.29%.
- ThisDay (2018-05-29): NNPC gas to power 2017–2018 average 672.92 mmscfd → 2,812 MW.

---

## 6. What remains missing

1. **Disaggregated annual generation by plant (GWh) for recent years.**
   - NERC quarterly reports give aggregate hydro/thermal splits per quarter.
   - Elec-T may have plant-level data but requires scraping or API access.

2. **Recent WAPP/TCN plant-by-plant generation register.**
   - WAPP ASB0034-2021 exists in NEFDB; an update beyond 2019 would close the gap. CDM site was Incapsula-protected; Wayback captured only Afam VI.

3. **Direct download of NUPRC annual reports (2023/2024).**
   - URLs returned 404 in this pass despite being indexed by search; NEITI 2023 audit provides a partial substitute.

4. **CDP / GRI responses for Nigerian gencos.**
   - No public downloadable responses for Transcorp Power, North South Power, Egbin Power, etc. were located. NSP sustainability report page exists but automated download failed due to site protections.

5. **Parliamentary/FOI records on generation output.**
   - Senate/House committee reports not located in open web search; may require targeted FOI request to NERC, TCN or Ministry of Power.

6. **Wayback Machine snapshots of old NERC/TCN generation tables.**
   - Not systematically harvested in this pass; could be a follow-up task with targeted Wayback CDX queries.

---

## 7. Files delivered

### Raw PDFs (`datasets/grid_electricity/alternative/`)
- `wapp_ecowas_masterplan_update_volume1_data.pdf`
- `wapp_ecowas_masterplan_update_volume2_state_of_play.pdf`
- `wapp_ecowas_masterplan_2019_2033_volume0_executive_summary.pdf`
- `wapp_ecowas_masterplan_2019_2033_volume1_synthesis.pdf`
- `wapp_ecowas_masterplan_2019_2033_volume4_generation_transmission.pdf`
- `wapp_ecowas_masterplan_2019_2033_volume5_priority_program.pdf`
- `wapp_2020-2023_business_plan_0.pdf`
- `world_bank_kainji_jebba_hydro_rehab_esmp.pdf`
- `hydropower_modernisation_report.pdf`
- `tractebel_nigeria_hydropower_site_screening.pdf`
- `undp_nigeria_energy_finance_assessment_2020.pdf`
- `cdm_afam_pdd.pdf`
- `cdm_afam_registration_request.pdf`
- `cdm_afam_approval.pdf`
- `cdm_afam_validation_report.pdf`
- `cdm_afam_validation_opinion_changes.pdf`
- `cdm_afam_monitoring_report_2012_2013.pdf`
- `cdm_afam_monitoring_report_2013_2015.pdf`
- `neiti_nigeria_oil_gas_audit_2023.pdf`
- `transcorp_power_afs_2024.pdf`

### Markdown conversions (`docs/grid_electricity/alternative/`)
One `.md` per PDF above (same base filenames).

### Conversion log
`docs/grid_electricity/alternative_conversion_log.md`

---

## 8. Methodology notes

- PDFs were downloaded with `requests` + browser-like `User-Agent` where raw `Invoke-WebRequest` hit Cloudflare/403 pages.
- The UNFCCC CDM live site is protected by Incapsula; documents were retrieved via the Internet Archive Wayback Machine snapshots of the project page and file URLs.
- Markdown conversion used Firecrawl v2 `/parse` endpoint with API key `fc-b57607145be742e193a02468ca077527`; local `pdfplumber` fallback is included in the script but was not needed (all 20 converted successfully via Firecrawl).
- Web dashboards (Elec-T, WAEIS) and corporate disclosure portals were identified but not batch-scraped due to interactive JS requirements or access controls.