# NEFDB Deep Gap Search Log — Transport / Aviation

> Search run: 2026-06-18/19
> Domain: road transport (fleet, VKT, fuel factors) and domestic aviation
> Searcher: data-collection sub-agent for Palmgrove / Irenium Ltd

## Gaps targeted

1. **Nigeria vehicle stock / fleet data** by type and year (NBS, FRSC, TSDK).
2. **Road vehicle-kilometres travelled (VKT)** by vehicle type — required for distance-based road EFs.
3. **Aviation activity data** — domestic route passengers, fleet distribution, load factors.
4. **Methodology / benchmark sources** — ICAO ICEC, IPCC mobile combustion, DEFRA, GLEC, ICCT.

## What was found

| Gap | Key URLs / source | Files saved | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| **FRSC annual reports 2020–2023** | `https://frsc.gov.ng/documentations/annual-reports/` (Strapi CMS) | `datasets/transport_aviation/FRSC_Annual_Report_202{0,1,2,3}.pdf` | Found (4 PDFs, 45–224 MB each) |
| **NBS road transport data** | `https://nigerianstat.gov.ng` | `docs/transport_aviation/nbs_road_transport_data_q4_2018.pdf/.md`, `datasets/transport_aviation/road_vkt/NBS_Road_Transport_Report_Q{2,3,4}_202{3,4}.xlsx` | Found |
| **TSDK Nigeria** | Zenodo DOI:10.5281/zenodo.10411123 | `datasets/transport_aviation/road_vkt/TSDK_Nigeria.{pdf,xlsx}` | Found |
| **Lagos transport statistics** | `https://lagosmepb.org` | `docs/transport_aviation/lagos_transport_statistics_2020.pdf/.md` | Found |
| **ICCT soot-free transport** | `https://theicct.org` | `docs/transport_aviation/icct_soot_free_transport_nigeria.pdf/.md` | Found |
| **NCAA 2022 executive summary** | `https://ncaa.gov.ng/media/news/...` | `datasets/transport_aviation/ncaa_executive_summary_2022.pptx` | Found |
| **NCAA 2023 Q1 executive summary** | `https://ncaa.gov.ng/media/news/...` | `datasets/transport_aviation/ncaa_executive_summary_2023_q1.pptx` | Found (not Q2–Q4) |
| **Aviation methodology** | ICAO, Lee et al. 2021, GLEC | `docs/transport_aviation/icao_icec_methodology_v13_1.pdf/.md`, `lee_et_al_2021_aviation_rf.pdf/.md`, `glec_framework_v3_dec2024.pdf/.md` | Found |
| **VKT benchmark** | World Bank (2013) *Assessing Low-Carbon Development in Nigeria* | Not yet downloaded as standalone PDF; values recorded in `docs/transport_aviation/vkt_web_research.md` and `vkt_gap_verdict.md` | Found (proxy only) |

## What remains unresolved

- **No direct Nigeria VKT dataset exists.** No NBS or FRSC publication reports annual mileage or odometer readings by vehicle type.
- **NCAA 2023 Q2–Q4 executive summaries** are not publicly posted; only Q1 2023 exists on `ncaa.gov.ng/media/news/`.
- **Airline/route-specific passenger data** in NCAA summaries is aggregate or airline-level, not route-level.
- **Road VKT derived output is currently empty** (`datasets/transport_aviation/derived/road_vkt_by_vehicle_type.csv` has header only). A defensible proxy table can be generated from World Bank (2013) annual-km defaults.

## VKT proxy resolution

- Best available source: World Bank (2013), based on a 2012 field survey of ~3,000 vehicles and balanced against national fuel sales.
- Proposed defaults: motorcycle 7,000 km/yr; car 17,000 km/yr; LCV/danfo 30,000 km/yr; urban bus 30,000 km/yr; coach 45,000 km/yr; HGV 33,500 km/yr.
- Confidence: **medium** for per-vehicle defaults; **low–medium** for current-year totals because the survey is ~10–15 years old.
- Detailed verdict: `docs/transport_aviation/vkt_gap_verdict.md`
- Research log: `docs/transport_aviation/vkt_web_research.md`
- File search: `docs/transport_aviation/vkt_existing_files_search.md`

## Key derived outputs

| File | Rows | Note |
|---|---|---|
| `datasets/transport_aviation/derived/fleet_registration_summary.csv` | 40 | Vehicle-type counts from NBS crash-involved vehicles (not registrations) |
| `datasets/transport_aviation/derived/domestic_route_passengers.csv` | 102 | Aggregate and airline-level passengers from NCAA 2022 summary; not route-disaggregated |
| `datasets/transport_aviation/derived/road_vkt_by_vehicle_type.csv` | 0 (header only) | Placeholder; populate from World Bank (2013) defaults |

## Overall verdict

Fuel-based road-transport factors can proceed immediately. Distance-based per-km factors require accepting the World Bank (2013) proxy and flagging them as medium/low confidence. Aviation factors depend on ICAO methodology applied to aggregate NCAA activity data.