# Nigeria road VKT gap — verdict

## Direct vehicle-kilometres data found?

**No direct Nigeria VKT dataset was found in existing NEFDB files or in public web sources.**

None of the NEFDB sources — TSDK Nigeria, ICCT, World Bank Lagos Air Quality, NBS/FRSC vehicle reports, or Lagos transport statistics — publish **annual vehicle-kilometres travelled (VKT)** by road vehicle type for Nigeria.

However, a robust **proxy/assumption set** was found.

## Best available proxy: World Bank (2013) Nigeria vehicle survey

The World Bank report *Assessing Low-Carbon Development in Nigeria: An Analysis of Four Sectors* (2013) contains the most detailed Nigeria bottom-up vehicle activity dataset. It is based on:
- A 2012 field survey of ~3,000 vehicles across Abuja, Kaduna, Lagos and Ondo
- Uplifted State Licensing Authority registration data
- Balancing against national fuel sales data

These are **fuel-sales-calibrated** values, not raw odometer readings, but they are the best Nigeria-specific activity data publicly available.

### Suggested default annual km per vehicle type

| Vehicle category | Default annual km | Basis |
|---|---:|---|
| Motorcycle / two-wheeler | 7,000 | WB 2013 national default (balanced to fuel sales) |
| Passenger car | 17,000 | WB 2013 national default (balanced to fuel sales) |
| Light commercial vehicle / danfo minibus | 30,000 | WB 2013 LCV-goods |
| Urban bus | 30,000 | WB 2013 HDV-urban bus |
| Long-distance coach | 45,000 | WB 2013 HDV-coach |
| Heavy goods vehicle / truck | 33,500 | WB 2013 HCV-truck |

### Lagos-specific public transport alternative

From UITP/UATP (2010), reproduced in World Bank (2013):

| Vehicle category | Annual km | Note |
|---|---:|---|
| Public transport — large bus | 73,920 | Lagos-specific |
| Public transport — minibus | 72,000 | Lagos-specific |
| Private car | 4,260 | Lagos-specific; conflicts with national 17,000 km/yr |

The Lagos private-car value (4,260 km/yr) is far lower than the national survey (17,000 km/yr). The difference likely reflects survey scope (intra-urban only vs. national). For NEFDB national defaults, use the **17,000 km/yr** value; document the Lagos alternative separately if needed.

## Proposed derivation for NEFDB

If vehicle-km factors are included:

```
VKT_vehicle_type = vehicle_stock × annual_km_per_vehicle
```

Use:
- **NBS/FRSC/TSDK vehicle stock** for the latest year
- **World Bank (2013) annual km defaults** above
- Apply ICCC 2019 fleet-growth assumptions (~3–5% per year) to update stock if needed

## Confidence and limitations

- **Confidence:** **Medium** for factor derivation (good source, fuel-balanced) but **Low–Medium** for absolute current-year VKT because the underlying survey is from 2010–2012.
- **Key limitation:** No continuous Nigerian VKT monitoring system exists; NBS/FRSC do not publish mileage/odometer data.
- **Uncertainty:** ±25–40% on derived VKT totals.

## Recommended action for NEFDB v1

**Primary recommendation:** Keep fuel-based road transport factors (`kgCO2e/litre` petrol/diesel) as the main NEFDB v1 offering. Fuel data is more reliable and more commonly available to Nigerian companies.

**Secondary:** Optionally publish a derived `road_vkt_interim.csv` using World Bank (2013) annual-km defaults with explicit `confidence=medium` and `source=WB_2013_Nigeria_vehicle_survey` flags, for users who need distance-based estimates.

Do **not** present the interim VKT values as measured data.

## Follow-up to close the gap

1. Request official mileage/odometer data from FRSC or NBS.
2. Engage LAMATA for anonymised BRT/danfo fleet AVL/GPS mileage benchmarks.
3. Commission or source a Nigerian COPERT/EMEP-style vehicle activity study before upgrading vehicle-km factors to high confidence.

## Sources

- World Bank (2013). *Assessing Low-Carbon Development in Nigeria: An Analysis of Four Sectors*. Chapter 21, Tables 21.4–21.11. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/333931468332952975/pdf/782810REPLACEM00Box377335B00Public0.pdf
- African Development Bank / AGDI (2020). *Road Transport Energy Consumption and Vehicular Emissions in Lagos, Nigeria*. http://www.afridev.org/RePEc/agd/agd-wpaper/Road-Transport-Energy-Consumption-and-Vehicular-Emissions-in-Lagos-Nigeria.pdf
- UITP/UATP (2010). *Report on Statistical Indicators of Public Transport Performance in Africa*.
- ICCT (2019). *Cost and Benefits of Soot-Free Road Transport in Nigeria*.
- TSDK Nigeria (2023). Zenodo DOI:10.5281/zenodo.10411123.

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**Verdict date:** June 2026