# NEFDB Phase 3 — Nigerian Domestic Aviation: Representative Aircraft and Load Factor

**Purpose:** Document the dominant-aircraft and load-factor assumptions used to derive the `ng.aviation.domestic.*` emission factors in NEFDB v1.  
**Target data year:** 2022 (aligned with the NCAA Executive Summary and `PLAN.md`).  
**Prepared:** 2026-06-19

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## 1. Available Evidence

### 1.1 NCAA 2022 domestic traffic totals
The Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA) *Executive Summary on International and Domestic Flight Operations (January – December 2022)* provides the following totals for domestic operations:

| Metric | 2022 value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Domestic flights | **80,328** | Operated by 11 domestic airlines |
| Domestic passengers (inbound) | **6,309,664** | |
| Domestic passengers (outbound) | **6,359,977** | |
| Domestic passengers (total) | **~12.67 million** | |

**Limitation:** The NCAA summary reports passenger and flight volumes only. It does **not** list aircraft types, fleet share by route, seat capacity, or load factor. Route-specific emission factors therefore require documented assumptions.

### 1.2 Nigerian domestic fleet mix
Public fleet data show a mixed narrow-body / regional-jet fleet:

* **Air Peace** is the largest Nigerian carrier. The most recent ch-aviation fleet listing shows: six B737-300, four B737-500, one B737-700, six wet-leased B737-800, eight E145, two E190, one E195, five E195-E2, plus B777 wide-bodies used on international routes. The airline’s 2022 domestic operations were dominated by B737-300/500 Classics before the B737-800 wet-leases expanded in 2024/2025.[^1][^2]
* **Ibom Air** operates five Bombardier CRJ-900 and two Airbus A220-300 on domestic routes including Lagos–Uyo/Abuja/Port Harcourt.[^3][^4]
* The market also includes **Arik Air** (B737-700/800, Dash 8-Q400), **Aero Contractors**, **Azman Air**, **Dana Air**, **United Nigeria**, **Overland Airways**, and **Green Africa Airways** — flying B737-700/800, A320-family, MD-82/83, CRJ, ERJ and ATR aircraft.[^5]

### 1.3 Route-level aircraft assignments
Schedule and flight-tracking sites show the same route can be flown by several aircraft types depending on the day:

* Air Peace **Lagos (LOS) – Abuja (ABV)** has been scheduled with B737-300, B737-500 and B737-800 equipment; Flightera reports an average of ~130 seats per flight on this route.[^6][^7]
* Flightradar24 history for Air Peace P47120/7120 (LOS–ABV) shows recent rotations operated by B737-800s.[^8]

This confirms a **representative-aircraft approach is necessary**; a single route is not served by one type year-round.

---

## 2. Common Nigerian Domestic Aircraft — Seat Capacity

| Aircraft | Typical seats used for NEFDB | Range / operator-specific notes | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| **Boeing 737-300** | **136** | Air Peace config: 12 business + 124 economy | SeatMaps Air Peace B737 Classic[^9] |
| **Boeing 737-500** | **114** | Air Peace config: 12 business + 102 economy; 114-capacity aircraft delivered in 2017 | SeatMaps[^9], THISDAY / 9News[^10] |
| Boeing 737-700 | 128 | Typical two-class layout; Air Peace/AerCap example 128 seats | ch-aviation[^1] |
| Boeing 737-800 | 170 | Typical two-class layout; Air Peace single-class 189 seats; wet-leased examples 174 seats | Airliners.net / PlaneFYI[^11] |
| Airbus A320 | 150 | Typical two-class layout; high-density single-class up to 180 | Airbus A320ceo specs[^12] |
| Bombardier CRJ-900 | 90 | Maximum / high-density; two-class regional config ~76 seats | ASN CRJ900 specs / Wikipedia[^13] |
| Embraer ERJ-145 | 50 | All-economy regional config used by Air Peace Hopper | PlaneFYI / Flightera[^14][^2] |
| ATR 72-600 | 70 | Standard regional turboprop config | Skybrary / JAL / ATR booklet[^15] |
| Airbus A220-300 | 137 | Typical two-class layout used by Ibom Air / Air Canada | Airbus / Air Canada fact sheet / Qantas[^16] |

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## 3. Load-Factor Analysis

### 3.1 Why NCAA data cannot supply load factor
Load factor = passengers ÷ available seats. NCAA provides passengers and flights, but **not** seats per flight or aircraft type. Therefore the 2022 load factor must be modelled.

### 3.2 Africa benchmarks
| Year | Region / source | Passenger load factor |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Africa (AFRAA, citing IATA WATS) | **71.6%** |
| 2022 | Global domestic average (AFRAA, citing IATA WATS) | 78.9% |
| 2023 | Africa (AFRAA reporting members) | 74.5% |
| 2024 | Africa (AFRAA / IATA) | 74.5% – 75.0% |

Africa consistently trails the global average because of excess capacity and weaker demand matching on many intra-African routes.

### 3.3 Phase 3 assumption: 72%
`PLAN.md` specifies a **72%** load factor for NEFDB Phase 3. This is supported because:

* It is only marginally above the 2022 Africa average of **71.6%**.
* Nigeria’s trunk domestic routes (LOS–ABV, LOS–PHC, LOS–KAN) are among the highest-demand intra-African city pairs, so a small premium over the continent-wide average is reasonable.
* It is a conservative, rounded figure rather than the higher global domestic average of ~79%, avoiding an optimistic assumption for Nigerian operations.

**Confidence:** medium.  
**Sensitivity:** a ±3 percentage-point change in load factor changes the per-passenger-kilometre emission factor by roughly ±4%.

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## 4. Decision: Representative Aircraft for Phase 3

### Recommendation
**Adopt the `PLAN.md` assumption for Phase 3:**

* **Representative aircraft:** Boeing 737-500  
* **Seat count:** 114  
* **Load factor:** 72%

### Rationale
1. **Largest-carrier alignment:** Air Peace carries the largest share of Nigeria domestic passengers; its B737-300/500 Classics were a defining part of its 2022 domestic fleet and continue to appear on high-frequency schedules such as LOS–ABV.
2. **Data availability:** A public, specific Air Peace B737-500 seat map (12 business + 102 economy = 114 seats) is available from SeatMaps, and Air Peace itself has cited a 114-passenger B737-500 in fleet announcements.
3. **Conservatism / conservative default principle:** A 114-seat aircraft produces a higher per-passenger-kilometre factor than the larger B737-800 or A320. Using the smaller aircraft avoids understating emissions, consistent with NEFDB’s conservative-default principle.
4. **ICAO ICEC compatibility:** ICAO ICEC applies representative aircraft coefficients to each route; using a single documented aircraft allows a transparent, reproducible calculation.

### Trade-offs considered
| Alternative | Pros | Cons |
|---|---|---|
| **Boeing 737-800 / A320 (150–189 seats)** | Matches wet-leased/newer capacity now growing in Nigeria; more fuel-efficient per seat. | Produces a lower per-pax factor that may under-count 2022 emissions; B737-800s were not dominant in Air Peace’s owned 2022 fleet. |
| **Weighted fleet average** | Most accurate if fleet shares are known. | No published Nigeria-specific seat-kilometre or aircraft-type share data by route for 2022; would require unverifiable guesses. |
| **CRJ-900 / A220-300 (Ibom Air profile)** | Reflects a significant, modern domestic operator. | Only one airline; not representative of the total 11-airline 2022 market. |

### Conditions for changing the representative aircraft
If, during implementation, we obtain airline-level schedule data (e.g. OAG / ch-aviation schedules) showing that B737-800/A320 equipment accounted for a clear majority of 2022 Nigerian domestic seat-kilometres, NEFDB should update to a **150-seat narrow-body representative** in a future minor release, with full documentation of the revised fleet weighting.

---

## 5. References

[^1]: ch-aviation, “Nigeria’s Air Peace wet-leases another B737-800”, 2026-01-06 — fleet listing includes B737-300/500/700/800, E145, E190/E195/E195-E2. URL: https://www.ch-aviation.com/news/162402-nigerias-air-peace-wet-leases-another-b737-800

[^2]: Wikipedia, “Air Peace – Fleet”, accessed 2026-06-19. URL: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Peace

[^3]: Wikipedia, “Ibom Air – Fleet”, accessed 2026-06-19. URL: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ibom_Air

[^4]: The Guardian Nigeria, “The making of air transport devt plan, execution in Akwa Ibom”, 2022-12-23 — Ibom Air fleet of seven CRJ 900 aircraft and two A220-300. URL: https://guardian.ng/business-services/the-making-of-air-transport-devt-plan-execution-in-akwa-ibom/

[^5]: The Business Intelligence Africa, “Local airlines struggle with depleted fleet, low market penetration”, 2022-02-21 — fleet overview of Air Peace, Arik, Aero, Ibom Air, Dana, United Nigeria, Azman. URL: https://tbiafrica.com/2022/02/21/local-airlines-struggle-with-depleted-fleet-low-market-penetration/

[^6]: Flightera, “Air Peace flights from Lagos to Abuja”, accessed 2026-06-19 — ~130 seats/flight average; route distance 511 km. URL: https://www.flightera.net/en/route/DNMM/DNAA/P4/

[^7]: Flightmapper, “Air Peace flights from Lagos to Abuja”, accessed 2026-06-19 — schedules show B737-300/500 on LOS–ABV. URL: https://info.flightmapper.net/route/Air_Peace_P4_LOS_ABV

[^8]: Flightradar24, “Flight history for Air Peace flight P47120”, accessed 2026-06-19 — recent LOS–ABV rotations listed as B737-800. URL: https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/p47120

[^9]: SeatMaps, “Air Peace Boeing 737 Classic aircraft seat map”, accessed 2026-06-19 — B737-300 136 seats; B737-500 114 seats. URL: https://seatmaps.com/airlines/p4-air-peace/boeing-737-classic/

[^10]: THISDAYLIVE, “Air Peace Delivers 12th Aircraft to Boost Regional Operations”, 2017-02-24 — references a 114-capacity Boeing 737-500; 9News Nigeria mirrors the same figure. URL: https://www.thisdaylive.com/2017/02/24/air-peace-delivers-12th-aircraft-to-boost-regional-operations/

[^11]: Airliners.net, “Boeing 737-800/900 aircraft data”, accessed 2026-06-19 — typical two-class seating 162, max single-class 189. See also PlaneFYI B737-800 overview. URL: https://www.airliners.net/aircraft-data/boeing-737-800900/96

[^12]: Airbus, “A320ceo - Capacity”, accessed 2026-06-19 — typical 2-class 140–170 seats, max 180. URL: https://www.aircraft.airbus.com/en/aircraft/a320-family/a320ceo

[^13]: Aviation Safety Network, “Bombardier CRJ900 specs”, accessed 2026-06-19 — max 90 passengers; series 76–90 seats. URL: https://asn.flightsafety.org/database/types/Bombardier-CRJ900/specs

[^14]: PlaneFYI, “Embraer ERJ-145”, accessed 2026-06-19 — standard 50-seat configuration. URL: https://planefyi.com/aircraft/embraer-erj-145/

[^15]: Skybrary, “ATR 72-600 – 70 seats at 30” pitch”; JAL ATR72-600 page confirms 70 seats. URL: https://skybrary.aero/sites/default/files/bookshelf/3696.pdf and https://www.jal.co.jp/jp/en/aircraft/conf/at7.html

[^16]: Airbus / Air Canada / Qantas, “Airbus A220-300” fact sheets, accessed 2026-06-19 — two-class layouts of 137 seats. Airbus factsheet: https://www.airbus.com/sites/g/files/jlcbta136/files/2025-11/EN-Airbus-A220-Facts-and-Figures-November-2025.pdf ; Air Canada fact sheet: https://www.aircanada.com/content/dam/aircanada/portal/documents/PDF/en/a220-fact-sheet-en.pdf

[^17]: NCAA, “2022 Executive Summary on International and Domestic Flight Operations”, 2023-02-10, with downloadable PowerPoint. URL: https://ncaa.gov.ng/media/news/2022-executive-summary-on-international-and-domestic-flight-operations/

[^18]: NCAA, executive summary PowerPoint file: `executives-summary-january-december-2022.pptx`. URL: https://ncaa.gov.ng/media/avmlqfh2/executives-summary-january-december-2022.pptx

[^19]: AFRAA, *African Airlines Annual Report 2023* (2022 data), March 2024 — Africa PLF 71.6% in 2022. URL: https://www.afraa.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/AFRAA_2023-AR%E2%88%9A-4.pdf

[^20]: AFRAA, *African Airlines Annual Report 2025* (2024 data), November 2025 — Africa PLF 75% in 2024, reporting members 74.5%. URL: https://afraa.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/AFRAA-AR-2025_%E2%88%9A.pdf